Analyzing pilot shortage by the numbers

Analyzing the pilot shortage by the numbers & how it affects career outlook

Never before has the aviation industry encountered such a transformational shift that’s all about the future of being a pilot. Due to retirements, an upturn in travel demand, and expanding commercial airlines, the pilot shortage is redefining what it means to be a part of the industry. By understanding the top pilot shortage statistics, new or prospective pilots will see why it's never been a better time to join the ranks of the aviation industry.

Current state of the pilot shortage

The pilot shortage is a trend we don't want to take off - but it's already in the air. Aviation experts expect that by 2029, there will be a demand for more than 800,000 new pilots. In the North American region alone, Boeing's 2024-2043 Pilot and Technician Outlook estimates nearly 123,000 pilots are needed.

Overall, the global demand increase suggests a need to train between 649,000 and 674,000 new pilots between 2024 and 2043. Why such increased demand? New airline fleets, increased demand for international travel, and a mature workforce with cutoff retirements have all played their part.

The FAA's 2024-2044 Aerospace Forecast supports this trajectory. The United States will continue to have personnel shortages into the 2040s, requiring the training of 123,000 pilots. With commercial airlines hiring aggressively and competition for certified flight instructors heating up, there's never been a better opportunity to begin your flight training journey.

Causes of the shortage

Growing air travel is one of the chief causes of the pilot shortage because it creates demand for more pilots than are available. The average age of a pilot has increased, meaning that a lot of older pilots are at or near retirement, which makes the shortage more complex. However, it's also an opening for new pilots to join the workforce.

After 2020, COVID complicated training and hiring for new and seasoned pilots, which adds to the pilot shortage within the industry. Here are the key components of the pilot shortage and what the industry expects going forward:

• Growing demand for air travel: The pandemic stimulated demand for air travel as unprecedented growth is leading to increased numbers of planes and their required pilots in the field, as people are flying again.
• Workforce aging: U.S. Federal regulations require that airline pilots retire at 65. Thousands of senior-level captains leave the industry each year as a byproduct, adding to the talent shortage.
• Training pipeline disruption: Flight schools were temporarily closed during COVID-19, and airline training programs were put on hold. This unintended gap is still felt years after operations resumed.
• Highly expensive training programs: The cost of becoming a licensed and trained professional pilot deters hopeful students from pursuing careers in the industry, making entry-level positions more challenging to fill.

These factors have come together for the perfect storm of an increasing desire for international travel at the same time as a shortage of qualified pilots.

Implications of the shortage

The pilot shortage is already shifting the dynamic between pilot and airline in the pilot's favor. For example:

• Increased salary and incentives: Salary across the board is increasing. Major airlines are offering over $90,000 in the first year for new hires, and in some cases signing bonuses of upwards of $150,000.
• Faster upgrades: Significant staffing challenges impacting operational capacity and financial performance mean faster upgrades from First Officer to Captain and faster shifts to major carriers.
• Improved quality of life: Due to less pilots, many airlines are implementing improved scheduling, quality of life options, and better benefits just to acquire and retain employees.

These pilot shortage statistics mean that, for new young pilots entering the field, there are more job prospects, increased starting salaries, and faster growth to where they want to be in the future.

Career outlook for aspiring pilots

Training to become a pilot for a career today guarantees you'll have everything going your way upon graduation.

The need for air travel is predicted to skyrocket within the next decade. According to Boeing, North America commercial fleet size will grow by 40% by 2032. Thus, all sectors of aviation will increase, which translates to increased demand and hiring of new pilots.

Both the FAA's annual Aerospace Forecast and the findings from hiring plans established by the most prominent airlines in North America indicate that demand extends at least through 2040. Employment of airline and commercial pilots is expected to increase from 2023 to 2033 alone with 8,000+ positions for pilots and flight engineers expected.

The bottom line is, those who learn to fly now will take to the marketplace highly in-demand skills with pay like never before or ever again.